By poll on two Lok Sabha seat in a BJP governed state like Rajasthan may not be seen as important enough for national headlines but results of these by polls will have the potential to decide political future of two well known figures in desert state, namely – Chief Minister Vasundhara Raje and wana-be Chief Minister Sachin Pilot.
In rusty rural politics of Rajasthan where caste rules the roost, Vasundhara Raje had again depending on her time tested bond with Jat community and the sympathy factors, if any, for the family of late Sanwar Lal Jat in Ajmer. In Alwar, there were no much options available with both the parties as Yadavs constitutes a majority in caste corundum. Both parties have fielded their most experienced war horse from Yadav clan.
Vasundhara Raje has already switched to election mode as she knows that assembly election in 2018 is going to be a make or break deal for her political career. In the Modi era, she has lost the umbilical cord support from top echelon of RSS and her businessmen friends are all cozying up with Modi-Shah duo. Which leaves her with hobson’s choice of becoming an election war horse to keep her political standing alive and kicking after 2018. Sachin Pilot is comparatively bit more fortunate, as he has time on his side to mature up in future.
Importance of by-polls in Rajasthan in Ajmer and Alwar is that a loss for BJP on both seats may sound a bugle declaring decline of Modi wave in north India. This is why Vasundhara Raje is giving clear message to all and sundry that, ‘I want to get threw anyhow’. Central leadership of BJP is also facing TINA factor but they would not wait for long lest they are ready to take chances on performance of BJP in Rajasthan in 2019 general election.
Sachin Pilot, who was never considered a competition by Vasundhara Raje, has shied away to fight election in his home turf – Ajmer. This has not gone down well with the top decision makers in Congress who still have not forgotten the juggernauting of late Rajesh Pilot and Jitendra Prasad. Message is conveyed loud and clear to the high command – ‘Baba brigade do not have heart to fight tough battles.’ Ticket to Raghu Sharma has also thrown open the Pandora box of caste equations in central Rajasthan and reclusive CP Joshi will also feel the heat of new equations.
Sachin Pilot – the most visible face of Baba-Brigade of Congress faces double whammy in by-polls.
If congress wins both the Lok sabha seats, he would have nowhere to go but Rajasthan. On the other hand, if Congress loses any of the Lok Sabha by poll, it is Sachin Pilot whose prestige would be at stake. In both situation, Pilot has limited his options and closed the doors of Delhi on himself where a little bit of courage could have saved many years of seniority for him.
Fate of both Vasundhara Raje and Sachin Pilot will be decided by public in Ajmer and Alwar on January 29. We would wait and watch that whether Vasundhara Raje pilots BJP home or Sachin Pilot goes for an emergency lending followed by hibernation.